Полищук В.Ю.   Полищук Ю.М.  

Forecast of dynamics of thermokarst lakes in permafrost based on geo-simulation modeling and remote sensing data

Докладчик: Полищук Ю.М.

The results of mathematical modeling of the dynamics of fields of thermokarst lakes in the permafrost in Western Siberia until the end of this century is presented. Geo-simulation model of the dynamics of the thermokarst lake fields is developed. The model properties are determined on base of experimental data on the lake location coordinates and lake areas, obtained from multi-temporal Landsat satellite images for the period 1973-2009 yrs. The model accounts the relationship of thermokarst lake dynamics and climate changes, established on the basis of multivariate regression analysis of experimental data. Forecast of field dynamics of thermokarst lakes in West-Siberian permafrost by 2100 year was carried out on base of computer simulations using the predicted temperature changes by Russian and IPCC experts for the study territory.