International Conference «Mathematical and Information Technologies, MIT-2016»

28 August – 5 September 2016

Vrnjacka Banja, Serbia – Budva, Montenegro

Москвичев В.В.   Taseiko O.  

Risks Assessment Of Industrial Region Development As Social-Natural-Technogenic System

Reporter: Taseiko O.

Two types of strategic risks for social-natural-technogenic systems have the greatest importance in the processes of forecast models both for national and regional development strategy: individual strategic risks of human morbidity and mortality; economic risks of developing of social-natural-technological systems.
The strategic objective of expected development is the decreasing an individual risks to the acceptable levels. There are a lot of approaches for health risk assessment depending on basic risk factors. But common method to connect all factors hadn’t developed. The most of existing methods make it possible to estimate mortality and morbidity risks as a result of technogenic or natural emergencies. The paper focuses on selected risk factors which have the greatest influence on human health in Krasnoyarsk region, for which data are available to estimate population exposures or distributions.
This work investigates the cancer inhalation risk caused by the urban air pollution of Krasnoyarsk City because air pollution has great influence on human mortality and morbidity. To estimate an additional mortality caused by climate factors there were calculated some special parameters such as heat and cold waves, extreme temperature changes. Occupational hazards were estimated for employees of the metallurgy, mining and building industries of Krasnoyarsk region. Krasnoyarsk region has a wide range of the natural and technogenic sources leading to emergencies. It was shown that individual risk of death owing to technogenic emergency is greater significantly than risk owing to natural emergency.
In this work it is calculated the main contribution of these risk factors in the decreasing of habitants lifetime which is one of main strategic parameters of region development. This paper shows what kind of risks should be reduced for achievement of the objectives of Krasnoyarsk region development.

Key words: risk assesment, air polution, social-natural-technogenic systems

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