Bartsev S.I.   Belolipetskii P.   Degermendzhi A.   Saltykov M.  

Conceptual models of switching between multi stable states in the "biosphere-climate" system

Reporter: Bartsev S.I.

Time series analyses of global temperature and ~70 other global and local parameters indicates the presence of abrupt transitions between stationary states. The concept of non-linear syatems, which undoubtedly include the "biosphere-climate" system (BCS), makes the threshold response to gradually increasing influence factor (the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations) quite expectable.

Identification of the switching mechanisms using general circulation models of the atmosphere and the ocean is associated with the obvious difficulties due to their complexity. Understanding the nature of such switches at qualitative concepts can be achieved by using a conceptual small-scale models. Since quasi-periodic natural oscillations model has to take into account these phenomena. Since the origin of these oscillations is not finally determined there are two possible variants of the relationship between the natural quasi-periodic oscillations and a mechanism of abrupt transitions.

According to the first variant these oscillations are the result of joint influence of external factors (Chandler wobble of the poles, the lunar-solar nutation, solar activity) that overlap the switching of some natural thermostat the existence of which is indicated by some observations.  According to the second variant quasi-periodic oscillations are the manifestation of the intrinsic properties of the BCS and the observed abrupt switches of this system are due to changes of the attractor of a nonlinear oscillator or some system of coupled oscillators.

In the paper on the example of the series of small conceptual BCS models conditions for the occurence of multiple switches for these variants were studied and qualitative estimates of these variants feasibility were obtained.