Baranovskiy N.V.   Yankovich E.P.  

GIS-Technologies and Mathematical Simulation as Tools for Lightning-Caused Forest Fire Danger Prediction

Reporter: Baranovskiy N.V.

Deterministic-probabilistic technique of the forest fires forecast taking into account storm activity [1-3] and system of the lightning-caused fire danger forecast on satellite data [4] are improved. Functionality of such systems can be expanded by means of mathematical model of tree ignition by cloud-to-ground lightning discharge [5]. Various breeds of trees differ under many characteristics, including thermophysical and structural. It is known, that distinctions between coniferous and deciduous trees are most essential [6]. Warming up of a tree trunk process before ignition by cloud-to-ground lightning discharge is described mathematically by system of the non-stationary differential equations.
Present article is devoted to description of a program tool developed on the basis of physically proved mathematical model of coniferous tree ignition by a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge.
Formulated system of the equations with boundary and initial conditions is solved by a method of finite differences [7]. The marching method in combination to method of simple iteration [7] was used for the decision of finite difference analogues of the one-dimensional equations. Temperature and thermal flux are used as wood ignition criteria.
Possibility of deciduous tree ignition as a result of electric current course in trunk is shown as a result of the numerical decision of problem on ignition by the cloud-to-ground lightning discharge of deciduous tree containing moisture. The marked laws are characteristic for a typical range of parameters of external influence on wood of coniferous trees in storm conditions. The obtained results have not only the practical value consisting in a substantiation of a reality of the mechanism of coniferous tree ignition by cloud-to-ground lightning discharge.

The given program tool is prepared for inclusion in structure of geoinformation system for an estimation of the forest fire danger created on the basis of ArcGIS software. 

Acknowledgement
Work is executed at financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant N 16-41-700831)

References
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[2] N.V. Baranovskiy, Sibirskiy ecologicheskiy zhurnal, 6, 835 (2004) (In Russian)
[3] N.V. Baranovskiy, Ecologia i promyshlennost Rossii, 9, 59 (2008) (In Russian)
[4] E.I. Ponomarev E.I., V.A. Ivanov, Geographia i prirodnie resursi, 1, 147 (2006) (In Russian)
[5] G.V. Kuznetsov, N.V. Baranovskiy, EPJ Web of Conferences.76, (01028), 1 (2014)
[6] K. Esau Anatomy of seed plants. (1977)
[7] P. Majumdar, Computational Methods for Heat and Mass Transfer. (2005)